Does this price seem reasonable?

[Jeffrey Holmes]

9 minutes ago, CantPlayChaconne said:

Is it true that violins generally retail for twice what they go for in an auction?

Some relatively modern and some living makers set records at auction and the retail market rushes to catch up (check Poggi and Zygmuntowicz on the Tarisio site).  Others do not.

Martin has it right, as does George.  Auction attendance 30 or so years ago (before internet) was heavily dealer attended.

[GeorgeH]

19 minutes ago, martin swan said:

Much of what gets into auction is reject dealer stock,

You and others have said this before, but I don’t know that there is any proof that it is actually true. Yes, certainly some rejected dealer stock makes it to the auctions, but how much is “much”? 

Dealers are still major buyers at auctions. This idea that “much of what gets into auction is reject dealer stock” is a handy way of trying to discourage competition from retail buyers, but I am skeptical that it is true. I personally have sold some very nice instruments and bows via Tarisio with good results.

What is true is that it can take years to sell even good instruments through consignment. Many sellers don’t want to risk that, so auctions offer a good alternative.

[Jeffrey Holmes]

23 minutes ago, GeorgeH said:

You and others have said this before, but I don’t know that there is any proof that it is actually true. Yes, certainly some rejected dealer stock makes it to the auctions, but how much is “much”? 

Dealers are still major buyers at auctions. This idea that “much of what gets into auction is reject dealer stock” is a handy way of trying to discourage competition from retail buyers, but I am skeptical that it is true. I personally have sold some very nice instruments and bows via Tarisio with good results.

What is true is that it can take years to sell even good instruments through consignment. Many sellers don’t want to risk that, so auctions offer a good alternative.

My experience is that Martin's statement is true depending on one's definition of "much" and the reason for "rejected". Is it a majority?  I don't believe so when it comes to the major/online auction houses.  Their staff travels extensively to acquire marketable instruments and bows, but there are often instruments I recognize that have "made the rounds". For the smaller houses, it may be the % varies (upwards) significantly.

The reason for shop rejection may be condition, physical  difficulties, quality of example, failure to obtain a reliable opinion of authenticity, sat around too long, etc. I've experienced this checklist personally in the past.

[GeorgeH]

58 minutes ago, Jeffrey Holmes said:

depending on one's definition of "much"

Yes, exactly. I am sure it happens but how much is anybody’s guess.

I always warn people who are considering buying at auction that it should be considered like gambling. One needs to do everything possible to get the odds in one’s favor, and “never gamble more that you can stand to lose.”

Going back to the OP topic, that price does not seem out-of-line with what top living makers are getting for their instruments. Tetsuo Matsuda had a very prestigious career and stellar reputation form what I have read.

[Don Noon]

3 hours ago, Don Noon said:

Perhaps Matsuda is trending lately?

Is there any history on other good makers who have died, and how valuations trended over time after their death?

[deans]

8 minutes ago, Don Noon said:

Is there any history on other good makers who have died, and how valuations trended over time after their death?

"Good" is very subjective. But you can buy an Ed Campbell (one time VSA hotshot) for considerably less now than he was charging in the 1980s. A lot of reasons for this one-off example, I suppose. 

[jacobsaunders]

17 minutes ago, Don Noon said:

Is there any history on other good makers who have died, and how valuations trended over time after their death?

My observation is that the price of a passed maker falls over the next 10 years or so, as fewer and fewer people are around who knew him personally. Also there is nobody any more who talks about him, keeping up his “marketing” efforts. Also makers tend to sell violins to people of their own age group and therefore once he dies, the customers start dyeing off too, which causes a glut of available instruments

[Dwight Brown]

Thanks for the good discussion gentlemen. I appreciate your thoughts.

Dwight

DLB

[deans]

There is now a Matsuda on Tarisio auction (lot 157) already at 13K. The results should give some perspective on this maker.

[stern]

Tetsuo Matsuda Violin, Chicago, 1990

Sale price$35,000.00

You can ask whatever you like and often if it sells no one knows what it sold for.

 

I bought the last violin Luiz Bellini made directly from him in 2015 before he passed. Paid him 25k. Nine years later Tarisio sold the same exact model of his for 66K

[lFred]

4 hours ago, GeorgeH said:

You and others have said this before, but I don’t know that there is any proof that it is actually true. Yes, certainly some rejected dealer stock makes it to the auctions, but how much is “much”? 

Dealers are still major buyers at auctions. This idea that “much of what gets into auction is reject dealer stock” is a handy way of trying to discourage competition from retail buyers, but I am skeptical that it is true. I personally have sold some very nice instruments and bows via Tarisio with good results.

 

You will never get the true figure because it's falls into auction trade secrets & privacy
It also depends on witch auction you are talking about.. But if we are talking about specialized auction.
my conservative estimate* is that about 70% and up to 90% comes directly or indirectly from the pro market.
Directly: from luthier, dealer, gitan, antique dealer 
Indirectly: private that put a violin on consignment at a dealer for to much fail to sail takes its chance at an auction. private that was send by a pro to an auction house because there is no way he buys that.

And this makes sens when you think about it.. in the rare case where an instrument hit retail price.. the owner will get between 70 and 55% so best case scenario you get what you would from a dealer. worse case you get a lot less. ultra rare case you get more... a bit like casiono.. everyone play to win but in fact.. everyone but the house win

Auction act as a grey market (just like the some nomad dealers who literally take instrument A from shop A on a verbal consignent, and try so sale it to shop B,C,D,E,F in the same street. taking advantage of the psychologie of trade (you want fresh stuff not things that other could not sale). So yes some time dealer buy from those auction mostly if they can't get the stuff any other way.. could be very rare specimen that you'll pay at a price where you can hardly make a profit, or stuff that you do not have acces.. (if you leave abroad let say korea) you are not flooded with stuff for sale every week*, so its a coveignant way to stock.

In paris we get at least 10  and up to 30 instruments on offer every week and if you buy something  all of a sudden double that number as the word spread that you are in a buying mood. 


now if you are talking about non specialized auction that's an other story  almost everything comes from private, people who did not make the effort to see a luthier or enquise about specialized actionner.
 

Quote

"What is true is that it can take years to sell even good instruments through consignment. Many sellers don’t want to risk that, so auctions offer a good alternative."

That's the auctioneer's sale pitch. (that and "stuff need to move" when they come to get stuff from dealer)

But for most the reality is that you can not have the cake and eat it.

Most dealer will buy an good instrument for more than a seller will get after auction % and less that what the buyer will have to pay after auction% .So if you can't way you can still get more from a dealer.. It's not that people can't wait.. it that they gamble against the ods..






 

[Dwight Brown]

One thing I liked very much about the listing was giving the price up front. If I am shopping for something I like there to be a price so I don’t have to waste the seller’s time on something that is out of my league. I may be naive here but I prefer it.

DLB

[martin swan]

2 hours ago, lFred said:

You will never get the true figure because it's falls into auction trade secrets & privacy
It also depends on witch auction you are talking about.. But if we are talking about specialized auction.
my conservative estimate* is that about 70% and up to 90% comes directly or indirectly from the pro market.
Directly: from luthier, dealer, gitan, antique dealer 
Indirectly: private that put a violin on consignment at a dealer for to much fail to sail takes its chance at an auction. private that was send by a pro to an auction house because there is no way he buys that.

And this makes sens when you think about it.. in the rare case where an instrument hit retail price.. the owner will get between 70 and 55% so best case scenario you get what you would from a dealer. worse case you get a lot less. ultra rare case you get more... a bit like casiono.. everyone play to win but in fact.. everyone but the house win

Auction act as a grey market (just like the some nomad dealers who literally take instrument A from shop A on a verbal consignent, and try so sale it to shop B,C,D,E,F in the same street. taking advantage of the psychologie of trade (you want fresh stuff not things that other could not sale). So yes some time dealer buy from those auction mostly if they can't get the stuff any other way.. could be very rare specimen that you'll pay at a price where you can hardly make a profit, or stuff that you do not have acces.. (if you leave abroad let say korea) you are not flooded with stuff for sale every week*, so its a coveignant way to stock.

In paris we get at least 10  and up to 30 instruments on offer every week and if you buy something  all of a sudden double that number as the word spread that you are in a buying mood. 


now if you are talking about non specialized auction that's an other story  almost everything comes from private, people who did not make the effort to see a luthier or enquise about specialized actionner.
 

That's the auctioneer's sale pitch. (that and "stuff need to move" when they come to get stuff from dealer)

But for most the reality is that you can not have the cake and eat it.

Most dealer will buy an good instrument for more than a seller will get after auction % and less that what the buyer will have to pay after auction% .So if you can't way you can still get more from a dealer.. It's not that people can't wait.. it that they gamble against the ods..






 

I think this is a reasonable analysis, if not what anyone wants to hear.

Like you, we are offered an infinite supply of instruments and bows - we refuse 95%, and generally recommend the auction route.

 

 

[GeorgeH]

1 hour ago, lFred said:

You will never get the true figure because it's falls into auction trade secrets & privacy
It also depends on witch auction you are talking about.. But if we are talking about specialized auction.
my conservative estimate* is that about 70% and up to 90% comes directly or indirectly from the pro market.
Directly: from luthier, dealer, gitan, antique dealer 

 

Well then who do you think is buying at auctions? What percentage of buyers do you think are dealers?

My guess would be that the percentage of dealers who are buyers exceeds the percentage of dealers who are consigners.  

Back in the pre-internet days when dealers came to town for a live auction, there was lots of trading between dealers going on in hotel rooms outside the auctions. Plus, some would try to price-fix lots - “I won’t bid on that lot if you don’t bid on this lot” kinda thing. The internet basically killed all that.

And whether it is an auction or a dealer, the middleman alway wins on an individual sale, as they should. It is expensive to bring buyers and sellers together.

[martin swan]

8 minutes ago, GeorgeH said:

 

Well then who do you think is buying at auctions? What percentage of buyers do you think are dealers?

My guess would be that the percentage of dealers who are buyers exceeds the percentage of dealers who are consigners.  

Back in the pre-internet days when dealers came to town for a live auction, there was lots of trading between dealers going on in hotel rooms outside the auctions. Plus, some would try to price-fix lots - “I won’t bid on that lot if you don’t bid on this lot” kinda thing. The internet basically killed all that.

And whether it is an auction or a dealer, the middleman alway wins on an individual sale, as they should. It is expensive to bring buyers and sellers together.

The vast majority of buyers now are players, professional and amateur. The exception would be dealers from Asia who don’t have easy access to private sellers.

[lFred]

@GeorgeH I m not as confident estimating it : to playsafe 50%
it also depends on you bias on how do you count...if  5 dealers buy 20 lots out of 200  vs 100 players buying 1 lot in the same auction...
Do you count  50% dealer or 4.75%dealers  (likely why martin says vast majority)
and how do you count players that really are dealers buying 4-5 lots ?

 

 

[GeorgeH]

17 minutes ago, lFred said:

if  5 dealers buy 20 lots out of 200  vs 100 players buying 1 lot in the same auction...

I think of it only in terms of lots. If one dealer buys 20 lots or 20 dealers buy one lot each, that is still 20 lots sold to dealer(s). If there were 40 lots in the auction, then dealer(s) purchased half to them.

1 hour ago, martin swan said:

The vast majority of buyers now are players, professional and amateur.

“Vast majority” is very surprising. 

[deans]

I wonder who's buying all of those on the Amati affordable auction. Actually I wonder who can even make it scrolling to the end, I can get through the violas but that's about it.

[martin swan]

10 hours ago, GeorgeH said:

“Vast majority” is very surprising. 

Over the last 15 years there has been a concerted effort on the part of the auction houses to court musicians.

This has been so successful that many dealers now find it more cost/effort-effective to use the resources of auction houses to sell things, particularly those things that might be classed as slow moving stock.

[match]

6 hours ago, deans said:

I wonder who's buying all of those on the Amati affordable auction. Actually I wonder who can even make it scrolling to the end, I can get through the violas but that's about it.

It's really not that huge an amount. For example, if you leave out the bundles and children's violins, a quick count brings me to about 137 violins. That's a fair number, but not impossible to go through. Plenty of individually listed bows and books as well. For many dealers, it’s a great opportunity to clear out and finally let go of those repair projects that have been endlessly postponed and never actually started. It’s very convenient to just hand in 10 instruments and not have to deal with anything further. Just think of the effort it would take to list everything individually on online platforms. I quite like it – a lovely little playground, really.

[Victor Roman]

1 hour ago, martin swan said:

Over the last 15 years there has been a concerted effort on the part of the auction houses to court musicians.

This has been so successful that many dealers now find it more cost/effort-effective to use the resources of auction houses to sell things, particularly those things that might be classed as slow moving stock.

Bit of an out of the blue comment : I was under the impression that dealers / sellers are sitting on huge stocks of quasi-indifferent violins and are facing a shrinking market. True or false ?

[GeorgeH]

1 hour ago, Victor Roman said:

I was under the impression that dealers / sellers are sitting on huge stocks of quasi-indifferent violins and are facing a shrinking market.

That has been my very limited observation. Dealers seem less likely to outright buy good instruments at wholesale or even accept consignments because they already have large inventories of good instruments in most categories and price points.

If many musicians are now buying at auctions, that can’t be helping. 

[David Burgess]

My personal opinion is that 35K is reasonable for the work of a maker of that stature, but I am not an appraiser and can't say that if purchased at that price, the the violin could be eventually resold for less or more money.

[Victor Roman]

8 hours ago, GeorgeH said:

That has been my very limited observation. Dealers seem less likely to outright buy good instruments at wholesale or even accept consignments because they already have large inventories of good instruments in most categories and price points.

If many musicians are now buying at auctions, that can’t be helping. 

I visited dealers only in a couple of occasions and that was long ago during the 80s and once in the 90s, I think. Huge inventories and by that time the number of orchestras was shrinking : I wonder if those instruments were ever sold. But then, I suppose they must've landed somewhere. I'll mention that the couple of violinmongers I visited seem to lack any fundamental knowledge on how violins are used and how they should sound. 

[Victor Roman]

4 hours ago, David Burgess said:

My personal opinion is that 35K is reasonable for the work of a maker of that stature, but I am not an appraiser and can't say that if purchased at that price, the the violin could be eventually resold for less or more money.

Are you implying that an appraiser can ?