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Don Noon

2020 Pandemic Covid-19

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Here is a highly informative link with a fantastic global map of the pandemic’s extent. You can check on your county or district.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Americans should note how the Coronavirus now extends into rather remote and low population regions of our country. Still think this is a hoax?  Please take this threat seriously and be safe.
 

“Looks like we’re no longer In Kansas, Toto.” - Dorothy in Wizard of Oz.

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11 hours ago, PhilipKT said:

Which book?

"Music & Mind".  Geoffrey told me a great deal about the difficulties of maintaining a friendship with Gould.  Long telephone monologues in the middle of the night!

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1 hour ago, Ron MacDonald said:

"Music & Mind".  Geoffrey told me a great deal about the difficulties of maintaining a friendship with Gould.  Long telephone monologues in the middle of the night!

It must have been fascinating. Gould remains a brilliant milestone in the world of music. Most big names these days are good looking and gimmicky. Gould was an independent genius. He died over 30 years ago, but time has vindicated a lot of what he said.

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2 hours ago, Michael_Molnar said:

Here is a highly informative link with a fantastic global map of the pandemic’s extent. You can check on your county or district.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Americans should note how the Coronavirus now extends into rather remote and low population regions of our country. Still think this is a hoax?  Please take this threat seriously and be safe.
 

“Looks like we’re no longer In Kansas, Toto.” - Dorothy in Wizard of Oz.

perhaps better, more details with updates and individual country breakdowns

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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2 hours ago, Michael_Molnar said:

Here is a highly informative link with a fantastic global map of the pandemic’s extent. You can check on your county or district.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Americans should note how the Coronavirus now extends into rather remote and low population regions of our country. Still think this is a hoax?  Please take this threat seriously and be safe.
 

“Looks like we’re no longer In Kansas, Toto.” - Dorothy in Wizard of Oz.

For sure not a hoax and I made sure we had needed supplies weeks before this was on the radar of most of my fellow Americans.  Regrettably, I did not know what to do on investments and did what I normally do...stay the course and do nothing...just like 2001 and 2008...time will tell if this was smart.

That said, at some point a decision will have to be made on economic activity.  Staying in quarantine for 9 months is not practical and won't fly.  You cannot throw the baby out with the bathwater.

I do not know the right answer.  But somebody pointed out that this IS different than the 2008 banking fiasco because we know the solution this time...let people go back to their normal jobs.  Unfortunately this carries the terrible price of lives lost.

It's a decision that will need to be made at some point I think.

 

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Facts are facts.  COVID-19 pandemic is serious.  I'm not saying that we need to confine ourselves to our homes 100%.  As human beings, we need the elements (ie: sun, air, etc.).  We need supplies.  We need food.  These are things that we can get and should not panic for.  BUT, if we practice social distancing, we can indeed slow down the spread and nature (with help from science) will stabilize the situation.  Critical infrastructure must be saved during this time.  We must also exercise economic caution because too much (individual and government) spending, or not enough spending, will have lasting effects well after the pandemic stabilizes and subsides.  

I am not conservative nor liberal.  I am both.  We need to bail out families, but we also need to bail out some critical big companies.  For example, lets say we have 10 major airlines.  The government fails to bail them out right now.  Lets say half of those airlines cannot survive afterwards.  We as the consumer will get hit with higher prices for air travel as a result.  

We are all connected.  Socially, economically, emotionally, etc.  Apathy is never the answer.  

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The best explanation of how to deal with this issue is to use the Philidelphia/St. Louis example from the Spanish Flu pandemic.

I'm not sure why the human species refuses to learn from history.  Why do we insist on reinventing the wheel?

 

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9 minutes ago, Rue said:

The best explanation of how to deal with this issue is to use the Philidelphia/St. Louis example from the Spanish Flu pandemic.

I'm not sure why the human species refuses to learn from history.  Why do we insist on reinventing the wheel?

 

Watched this Last night! Thanks for posting this Rue!  EVERYONE should watch this on PBS.  Its free. Download the app.

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29 minutes ago, Rue said:

The best explanation of how to deal with this issue is to use the Philidelphia/St. Louis example from the Spanish Flu pandemic.

I'm not sure why the human species refuses to learn from history.  Why do we insist on reinventing the wheel?

 

A good primer on exponential growth via illustration.  My bone to pick is why they insist on drawing the hospital capacity at the peak of the lower curve when it may in fact be above or below the peak.

Area under the curve is also important and as pointed out, it could be equal or greater for the flatter curve...its the hospital capacity that matters.

 

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If the population at large can't understand a simple version of the above, making it more complicated isn't going to help.

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1 hour ago, outofnames said:

Area under the curve is also important and as pointed out, it could be equal or greater for the flatter curve...its the hospital capacity that matters.

The idea is to get the peak of the lower curve under hospital capacity. Then it does not matter it the AUC is the same.

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4 hours ago, Rue said:

The best explanation of how to deal with this issue is to use the Philidelphia/St. Louis example from the Spanish Flu pandemic.

I'm not sure why the human species refuses to learn from history.  Why do we insist on reinventing the wheel?

 

Unfortunately it probably wont work that way, and i am pretty sure you know about that.

Look at the latest serious calculations. If you would like to keep it under a critical value, you would need a shutdown to non-shutdown ratio of 4:1 for at least 18-24 months (supposing there will be a working vaccine). This would lead to a fatal recession probably killing more people than a sudden infection of 70 % of the world population.

We are too late with those videos, about 2 months too late.

Please prove me wrong.

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8 hours ago, Ron MacDonald said:

"Music & Mind".  Geoffrey told me a great deal about the difficulties of maintaining a friendship with Gould.  Long telephone monologues in the middle of the night!

I'd have happily tolerated those, I think.

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1 hour ago, Michael Szyper said:

Unfortunately it probably wont work that way, and i am pretty sure you know about that.

Look at the latest serious calculations. If you would like to keep it under a critical value, you would need a shutdown to non-shutdown ratio of 4:1 for at least 18-24 months (supposing there will be a working vaccine). This would lead to a fatal recession probably killing more people than a sudden infection of 70 % of the world population.

We are too late with those videos, about 2 months too late.

Please prove me wrong.

What are this "latest serious calculations" you are referring to? I guess, because you mentioned that you are a physician, you do know what you are talking about.

A sudden 70% infection rate of the world population would result in some hundred millions or more death for sure and many devasted countries (especially the less developed)  I'm assuming, so could this be an alternative?

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20 minutes ago, Three13 said:

I'd have happily tolerated those, I think.

Geoffrey told me that the monologues often went on for several hours and if Gould felt you were not listening carefully or had dozed off, he would instantly terminate the friendship.  Geoffrey had the good luck to survive.

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50 minutes ago, Michael Szyper said:

Unfortunately it probably wont work that way, and i am pretty sure you know about that.

Look at the latest serious calculations. If you would like to keep it under a critical value, you would need a shutdown to non-shutdown ratio of 4:1 for at least 18-24 months (supposing there will be a working vaccine). This would lead to a fatal recession probably killing more people than a sudden infection of 70 % of the world population.

We are too late with those videos, about 2 months too late.

Please prove me wrong.

But that's part of my point: the general public didn't want to believe this could be an issue. The governments didn't want to believe this could be an issue. So everyone dawdled.

There is no effective and timely global plan of action.

After the Spanish Flu there should have been one - that was regularly updated so it didn't get lost and forgotten over time. SARS and MERS should have escalated that global plan, not lulled us further into complacency. We should have a "fire drill" mentality.

Instead, no one took this seriously fast enough. Cruises were booked after the initial cruise ship debacle. Weddings are going ahead as planned - people are holding them in event tents if the venue was shut down

People are going to the beach, to bars, to house parties.

Everyone should have been reminded of the Spanish Flu immediately. Close off the regular TV and radio programs for a few days and only broadcast the science, until everyone has no choice but to listen.

Have one go-to internet channel so people stop listening to Karen dispensing advice about essential oils.

Have anti-hoarding legislation in place immediately. Call it the "Toilet Paper Act of 2020".

Have enforceable penalties in place for people who willfully break rules.

How many of those partygoers, who thumbed their noses at the issue, have the means to look after themselves when they can't breathe? Do they have a personal respirator and nurse squirreled away in the closet, or are they going to run to the hospital and add to the overburdened system? Who, in the population, isn't going to get the help they might need? Heart attack? Difficult labour? Accident victim? Overworked health care provider?

However...even if it's "too late" in general, maybe it's not too late everywhere. Better late than never?

Someone needs to grow a pair and be the "mean" parent...

 

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17 hours ago, TimRobinson said:

Best wishes to all, stay safe and healthy.

I won't attempt to summarise the situation in Australia, it is too complex and changes before your eyes.  We are taking the same steps as much of the world, but not soon enough according to some.  I'm not sure how much foreign news the US gets (the stereotype is that the US media is insular and generally uninformed about the rest of the world - profuse apologies for any offence, and I know that this does not apply to M'net members) but from what we see there are countries I would not want to be in and some that I would.  On the media question did people see that Bondi Beach has been closed? No great loss, dreadful beach - there are much better ones.  It was  a sunny weekend so thousands thought a surf was a good idea.  Does make you wonder about some people, but the young often think they are bullet proof.  Also, and you might not have heard this momentous news - Tasmania is shut off from the world  - or as they would say - the world is shut off from Tasmania :-)  This is actually a very good idea and is one advantage of being a small island at the end of the world.

As I say, stay safe and well.

Tim

 

I've seen that the toilet paper craze hit you guys, too, and is leading to another, related panic...........

458272281_ShockedKoala.thumb.jpg.b7206dccb6851ac8e6bcb272905404f9.jpg

:lol:

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Let's face it. The world was very ill prepared for a pandemic of this nature. We can't even supply enough masks and personal protective equipment for our health workers. Such a basic and easily manufactured product. 

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1 minute ago, Michael.N. said:

Let's face it. The world was very ill prepared for a pandemic of this nature. We can't even supply enough masks and personal protective equipment for our health workers. Such a basic and easily manufactured product. 

Perhaps we can recycle the countless millions of anime "action figures" and other vain products of merchandising clogging eBay and Amazon.  Can you say "restructure our priorities"?  :)

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11 minutes ago, Violadamore said:

Can you say "restructure our priorities"? 

Instead of preparing enough guns and bullets to shoot everyone on the planet several times? This could work of course.-_-

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8 minutes ago, Blank face said:

Instead of preparing enough guns and bullets to shoot everyone on the planet several times? This could work of course.-_-

Wait a second...I'm pretty sure you suggested we overburden the health care system - by running to the hospital at the first sign of a cough...<_<

Just sayin'...:ph34r:

Either way...bullets, virus, zombies - dead is dead.

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15 minutes ago, Blank face said:

Instead of preparing enough guns and bullets to shoot everyone on the planet several times? This could work of course.-_-

Such things should begin at home.  Why don't you go protest some of the names on this list?  You could start with Heckler & Koch...... https://ammoterra.com/gun-from-germany   :P

Get right down to it, a majority of the world's arms, including most of the handguns everybody points at continually, come from Europe

Now let's get back to the virus, and its implications, OK?  :)

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Now the UK has an enforced lockdown for at least three weeks, but probably more. Everyone has watched these measures take place across Europe, and other parts of the world.
Still a shock that it has finally happened, although I felt it was inevitable given the situation.

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22 hours ago, PhilipKT said:

So the kids aren’t in school right now, and online arrangements haven’t been made yet, so lots of free time. To my joy and surprise, a couple kids are using the time to practice more. Today’s lessons were wonderful. One boy wanted an online lesson and it was quite successful. They are also taking time  to read. I have lent out Testimony, The Devil’s Music Master,, The Violin Hunter, and reminiscences of a Violin Dealer, and I myself am reading a fascinating book about Glenn Gould called “ Music and Mind.”

I’m also writing a bit. Not a total waste

Have you read "A Romance on Three Legs", a good look at Gould's connection with his favorite Steinway?

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What strikes me about what could be called the hysteria surrounding the present health problem is the willingness of governments to throw everything at the situation. But when it comes to environmental issues it is business as usual, some action but no urgency. The fact is the habitable parts of the developed world and much of the rest is an environmental disaster zone. I can see mountains of non degradable masks ending up in stinking landfills and many making their way to waterways and the ocean. Nothing unusual of course along with all the other rubbish dumped.

 

 

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