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Don Noon

2020 Pandemic Covid-19

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34 minutes ago, jezzupe said:

India has already banned the sale for export of several drugs and components needed to make life saving drugs based on the fact that they can not purchase them from China as their factories have been on ice for a month as well as they have used the supply they do have for their own population.

Basically there is a "toilet paper" like situation brewing with life saving medicines, basically look at the mask/test shortage, that is happening because they make them all, and have used them for their own population.

We are in a desperate fight to retool factories to start making these drugs and the components here again. If we do not, in the short term we can not rely on other countries to give us there supplies, they are using them for their own populations, every man for himself kind of situation.

This is not predetermined outcome, but there definitely is a "they have us by the balls" kind of situation, and as the rhetoric ramps up between the two countries I can see more "no we're all out" happening.

As a reminder they just accused us of sending "US army" over there and that "we" spread the virus over there on purpose, that does not go over too well, particularly when it is quite clear that the virus started in China.

I don’t know how the future will be, but I believe that there will be mainly shortages in goods with higher demand, as masks for example.

For the moment I am not shure if there will be a significantly higher consumption in antibiotics, but I doubt it.

As Mr. Burgess said, there will be collateral deaths, I second that. Still, there is absolutely no reason for irrational panic. Even if we all were about to die, panic would not help.

I would recommend everybody to work as hard as you can, make as many instruments as you can and try to sell it when the time comes.

I am observing a general decrease of productivity, also because of anxiety, which does not help at all.

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11 minutes ago, Michael_Molnar said:

OK, Gang. Let’s cool our jets before Jeffrey gets upset. 
I was sad to learn that Joe Robson’s varnish workshop was shutdown. I then realized that Joe Thrift’s and Oberlin workshops will also likely be canceled. Now, I wonder about the. VMAAI and even the VSA. And there are other workshops throughout the US and elsewhere, I imagine, that could suffer.

Hopefully, we will have Maestronet to pull us through this.

 

 

 

VSA and Cremona mondomusica is likely to be canceled. Let us look forward to next year.

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29 minutes ago, Michael Szyper said:

I am observing a general decrease of productivity, also because of anxiety, which does not help at all.

I am observing a general decrease of productivity, mostly due to sitting at the computer reading and posting stuff.  I'm feeling an overload about now, and time to get back to the shop.  I don't get much anxiety, but there's a lot less in the shop when listening to music and carving wood.

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Let's not get too excited...  My father-in-law 40 years ago gave me the best advice ever at a difficult time ....

"do the best you can... you can't do better than that!" 

that said, being stressed & laying blame,  will not solve anything... follow science based advice, do what you need to do, and stay in touch with family, friends & neighbours... not to complain but to uplift spirits.

Humanity will survive this,  you and I may not, but if you have done your best, you've done your best! ... and as they say in some circles.. your faith will set you free.

Stay safe everyone.. still researching violin stuff, and I guess that means I plan to be around! 

Cheers, Mat

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43 minutes ago, Don Noon said:

I am observing a general decrease of productivity, mostly due to sitting at the computer reading and posting stuff.  I'm feeling an overload about now, and time to get back to the shop.  I don't get much anxiety, but there's a lot less in the shop when listening to music and carving wood.

Yup!

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18 hours ago, jezzupe said:

 

this assumes they keep the juice on.

Why would you expect power failures, exactly?

There is no added stress to the grid.  

Even if 10% of the population died, I fail to see any reason why they should all be utility workers and operators.  Most systems are automated with shift operators.

My company builds and operates industrial plants all over the world, we operate them remotely just fine.  Rotating staff do daily site visits for maintenance work as needed.

I think you may be extrapolating to an outcome that I have a hard time arriving at.

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I still think the PTB should have immediately consulted all the writers of Apocalypse movies and series. THOSE people have thought through all possible scenarios!

Personally, I also think it's funny how quickly we think something new is already old...

Ex. I work from home a lot. I was, for all intents and purposes, isolated for 2 weeks before this started, so 3 weeks in total. When I read comments about people who are complaining after 24 hours...<_<

The other thing I don't understand are the people who won't comply with restrictions. If this was/is an overreaction - wouldn't you still rather face the consequences of that "error" than the consequences of not complying? 

I just read about all the thousands of people who insisted on traveling for Iranian New Years. I understand the importance of the celebration - but you are already experiencing a severe crises in Iran, wouldn't you rather skip one New Years Celebration in order to ensure that next year you can possibly still have one, with every one still hale and hearty?

Same with the spring break students in the USA.

Same with the covid19 positive people who are out and about (they just arrested one in Quebec)...

Same with all the travelers who return, won't isolate, and say "I feel fine" even though there were 11 sick people on their plane.

Why can't all those folks "suck it up" for 2 weeks?

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5 hours ago, jacobsaunders said:

making violins for not bailed out musicians, who haven’t earnt anything for months and where there are no bailed out concerts, will surely be a pretty esoteric pursuit.

There might be a way to join concerts online and get paid with ads and paypal;). Many teachers are starting online teaching now.

 

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Our boy's Suzuki school just started online lessons. We had the first lesson this week. I have to say that it went really well. Much better than I expected. We used Skype without any problems. 

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Keeping ones violin makers spirits up:

People are getting inventive. One of my customers recorded 2 Dvorak piano pieces, put them on Youtube and sent them to me. I thought that was a lovely idea.

Humoresque Op. 101, No. 7

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7IdiMVLWS6Q

Slawische Tanz Op. 72, No.2

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54Wtxi74fHs

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The State of Ohio just announced mandatory closing of non-essential businesses, so the stores one of my daughters manages are now shut down, and she is now unemployed, like many other people. The other daughter works in social services for the state of Hawaii, so she'll probably be OK. Maybe busier than ever.

Tonight, we will be celebrating the 90th birthday of my mother-in-law. It was originally planned as big family get-together, but has been modified to have everyone stay in place, and have the party via Skype, largely with her safety in mind.

Tough times. I think we'll get through it reasonably well if everybody pulls together.

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11 minutes ago, David Burgess said:

The State of Ohio just announced mandatory closing of non-essential businesses, 

sobering to realise that violin-making is a "non-essential" business, isn't it:)

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4 hours ago, outofnames said:

Why would you expect power failures, exactly?

There is no added stress to the grid.  

Even if 10% of the population died, I fail to see any reason why they should all be utility workers and operators.  Most systems are automated with shift operators.

My company builds and operates industrial plants all over the world, we operate them remotely just fine.  Rotating staff do daily site visits for maintenance work as needed.

I think you may be extrapolating to an outcome that I have a hard time arriving at.

I will TRY to answer this last question here, I will be bowing out of this conversation as it will just end badly if I don't

That being said, I think you are reading something into my response, perhaps based on me assuming "you" know I live in California, which of course you may not know that.

"they keep the juice on" was not referring to the CCP virus itself causing any disruption , It's just that if one lives in California you are subject to rolling blackouts, as year after year the greatly mismanaged forest seems to set itself on fire and burn entire towns down to the ground, so after the last time that happened NM rothschild owned PGE decided that they could enact rolling blackouts at any moment based on weather conditions as we don't like to rake our forests,raking is something that is done after the brush has been cleared so it is an accurate statement.

So if "you" live in California, and this virus lockdown extends into summer, there may be rolling blackouts and power disruptions for millions of people on top of dealing with the pandemic.

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28 minutes ago, jacobsaunders said:

sobering to realise that violin-making is a "non-essential" business, isn't it:)

It certainly is! Most people who play already have a violin or two, and unfortunately, violins are not flushed down the toilet at the rate of toilet paper. :lol:

There have already been some suggestions to invest in the future by catching up on repairs of old inventory, or using increased discretionary time to make. I think these suggestions are good, and I don't currently have any better suggestions.

Fortunately, I was raised with the ability to live very frugally. Both of my parents largely "pulled themselves up by their bootstraps". My Dad worked his way through college by shoveling coal into the furnaces at the college heating plant. My mother spent her summers off from college working at a pea canning factory in Walla Walla, Washington.

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50 minutes ago, jacobsaunders said:

Keeping ones violin makers spirits up:

People are getting inventive. One of my customers recorded 2 Dvorak piano pieces, put them on Youtube and sent them to me. I thought that was a lovely idea.

Humoresque Op. 101, No. 7

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7IdiMVLWS6Q

Slawische Tanz Op. 72, No.2

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54Wtxi74fHs

Those were really good! What a lovely idea!

BTW, since I'm enjoying getting glimpses into people's living spaces, what's that little window in the room? Is this a basement suite? Is that a window that opens to street level?

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My wife and I have a "once in a lifetime" trip to Italy scheduled for July 1. Not looking good at this point...Granted there are much bigger issues than a mere vacation trip. I really feel for the citizens of Italy and everyone that is suffering from this pandemic. Dying by suffocation/pulmonary trauma must be horrific. Hopefully this will abate sooner rather than later. The world needs ventilators stat!

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5 minutes ago, scordatura said:

Dying by suffocation/pulmonary trauma must be horrific. Hopefully this will abate sooner rather than later. The world needs ventilators stat!

"GM to lend its auto factories to support production of ventilators in coronavirus fight."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/gm-to-lend-its-auto-factories-to-support-production-of-ventilators-in-coronavirus-fight.html?__source=facebook|main&fbclid=IwAR1d8T4HZXIjZcYshvj6IYgnEL1FFbVIJjS6FVH02_mgDlfw66KvPgR5VB0

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14 minutes ago, David Burgess said:

That is very good news. The only concern is the time to ramp up production. No doubt that the virus has "awoken the sleeping giant". 

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So the kids aren’t in school right now, and online arrangements haven’t been made yet, so lots of free time. To my joy and surprise, a couple kids are using the time to practice more. Today’s lessons were wonderful. One boy wanted an online lesson and it was quite successful. They are also taking time  to read. I have lent out Testimony, The Devil’s Music Master,, The Violin Hunter, and reminiscences of a Violin Dealer, and I myself am reading a fascinating book about Glenn Gould called “ Music and Mind.”

I’m also writing a bit. Not a total waste

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Best wishes to all, stay safe and healthy.

I won't attempt to summarise the situation in Australia, it is too complex and changes before your eyes.  We are taking the same steps as much of the world, but not soon enough according to some.  I'm not sure how much foreign news the US gets (the stereotype is that the US media is insular and generally uninformed about the rest of the world - profuse apologies for any offence, and I know that this does not apply to M'net members) but from what we see there are countries I would not want to be in and some that I would.  On the media question did people see that Bondi Beach has been closed? No great loss, dreadful beach - there are much better ones.  It was  a sunny weekend so thousands thought a surf was a good idea.  Does make you wonder about some people, but the young often think they are bullet proof.  Also, and you might not have heard this momentous news - Tasmania is shut off from the world  - or as they would say - the world is shut off from Tasmania :-)  This is actually a very good idea and is one advantage of being a small island at the end of the world.

As I say, stay safe and well.

Tim

 

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2 hours ago, TimRobinson said:

the stereotype is that the US media is insular and generally uninformed about the rest of the world - profuse apologies for any offence, and I know that this does not apply to M'net members

Correct. 

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