eBay - Economic Barometer?

[GlennYorkPA]

Throughout most of last year, if you entered 'violin' into eBay, it produced around 9000 hits. Towards the end of the year this increased to around 11,000 hits. Early this year it was up to 17,000 and has only just dropped below that figure; (Obama's 'glimmer of hope' in a recovering economy ??).

I don't know if this is coincidence but I'm finding it as useful to watch this index as the Dow Jones!

Glenn

[Dwight J]

Throughout most of last year, if you entered 'violin' into eBay, it produced around 9000 hits. Towards the end of the year this increased to around 11,000 hits. Early this year it was up to 17,000 and has only just dropped below that figure; (Obama's 'glimmer of hope' in a recovering economy ??).

I don't know if this is coincidence but I'm finding it as useful to watch this index as the Dow Jones!

Glenn

This would be interesting if you had kept a daily or weekly log over the last 5 to 10 years.

[cjstuff]

This would be interesting if you had kept a daily or weekly log over the last 5 to 10 years.

I watched eBay violin listings very closely for somewhere between 2-3 years, from 2006 through 2008. During that time, I saw a highly noticeable decrease in "actual" violins being sold and a huge upswing in extremely cheap VSOs from China. In early 2007, for example, eBay averaged between 1200-1500 new violin listings daily, including relistings. Today, the number is significantly higher. As eBay seller fees changed, I also watched the sales price of cheap violins decrease while their their shipping "costs" doubled or tripled.

I eventually gave up considering eBay an interesting source for instruments. Back in 2006, I picked up a number of German trade instruments fairly inexpensively, and they will make good projects when I finally get around to them. Today, with very few exceptions, I see a lot of violins selling far in excess of what I would pay for an instrument with condition issues that I haven't had the chance to inspect in person, much less hear. The anonymity of eBay bidding makes it far easier to engage in shill bidding, and I can't help believing that's going on quite a bit. Either that, of my violin price-meter, which I calibrate against pricing around where I live (greater Washington DC area) is seriously out of kilter.

[GlennYorkPA]

I watched eBay violin listings very closely for somewhere between 2-3 years, from 2006 through 2008. During that time, I saw a highly noticeable decrease in "actual" violins being sold and a huge upswing in extremely cheap VSOs from China. In early 2007, for example, eBay averaged between 1200-1500 new violin listings daily, including relistings. Today, the number is significantly higher. As eBay seller fees changed, I also watched the sales price of cheap violins decrease while their their shipping "costs" doubled or tripled.

I eventually gave up considering eBay an interesting source for instruments. Back in 2006, I picked up a number of German trade instruments fairly inexpensively, and they will make good projects when I finally get around to them. Today, with very few exceptions, I see a lot of violins selling far in excess of what I would pay for an instrument with condition issues that I haven't had the chance to inspect in person, much less hear. The anonymity of eBay bidding makes it far easier to engage in shill bidding, and I can't help believing that's going on quite a bit. Either that, of my violin price-meter, which I calibrate against pricing around where I live (greater Washington DC area) is seriously out of kilter.

Interesting observations, cj.

I have better ways of using my time than plotting eBay activity over extended peiods but one get a 'feel' for what's going on and there was a time, maybe 3-4 years ago, when dealers were very snooty about eBay and dismissed it completely. At that time, we all looked for fuzzy pictures from people who clearly didn't know what they had.

Now the professionals have swept in and

a. use eBay as a dumping ground for their qustionable items and

b. watch like a hawk for anything half decent.

That said, the huge spike in listing early this year looked like a panic reaction from people trying to raise a little extra cash in uncertain times. The bargains are still there but we are definitely looking for needles in very large haystacks.

I still believe that one should buy in economic downturns and sell in bouyant markets. The problem is that people with 'good stuff' aren't selling while the market is low.

Glenn

[IBK]

Interesting observations, cj.

I have better ways of using my time than plotting eBay activity over extended peiods but one get a 'feel' for what's going on and there was a time, maybe 3-4 years ago, when dealers were very snooty about eBay and dismissed it completely. At that time, we all looked for fuzzy pictures from people who clearly didn't know what they had.

Now the professionals have swept in and

a. use eBay as a dumping ground for their qustionable items and

b. watch like a hawk for anything half decent.

That said, the huge spike in listing early this year looked like a panic reaction from people trying to raise a little extra cash in uncertain times. The bargains are still there but we are definitely looking for needles in very large haystacks.

I still believe that one should buy in economic downturns and sell in bouyant markets. The problem is that people with 'good stuff' aren't selling while the market is low.

Glenn

The business dynamic of eBay has certainly changed in the last few years. I joined in 1997 and have seen great changes in eBay policies and in the goods offered by sellers. When eBay was a new concept one could find spectacular items and acquire them at a resonable price. The populaity of eBay has brought with it the scammers, counterfeiters, fraudsters, misrepresenters, etc, etc. As the American economy began to decline we saw an influx of bricks and mortar music stores using eBay to sell inventory on hand to a greater than local market. To some of these retailers it was the only way to stay in business and meet their overhead. We also saw instruments come out of closets, attics, garages and basements and marketed "as is" to whoever would accept them in the condtion as offered. Sometimes they were a great opportunity for the aspiring restorer and sometimes they were just fire wood.

There is no doubt that to buy on eBay takes some knowledge of the area of interest and some sophistication as the instances of fraud have risen.

As mentioned by others, there are still a few bargans to be had. Last year a seller from England offered what appeared to be a genuine Gaetano Gagliano (a lesser 19th century maker of the famous Neapolitan Gagliano family) which seemed to be right on. The wood, body shape, ff holes and scroll were 100% accurate as was typical of the Gaglianos. It was offered by an antique dealer, not a violin shop and was suppled with a couple of silver mounted bows. The winning bid was about $8000 US. Now it is possible that this was a 19th century English copy, the type which was produced by the Voller Brothers or John Lott, but I doubt it. Some one got a great deal.

As for those with private feedback or 100% positive feedback, who misrepresent or label to deceive, at some point they will be caught and their little game will be over.

Ebay has no interest in stopping this type of thing as it is not good for their bottom line. It is too bad that more potentials buyers of string instruments on eBay don't read this forum before they make a purchase.

Ira Kraemer