Logic, although maybe comforting, is futlle in the face of experience. I sat next to a guy for several years with a Markie box I could have sworn was a Testore, had I not seen it. And a nice one.
Mr. Swann, who knows a thing or two about the fiddle market, was (maybe still is) offering an exceotionally fine whodunnit at a price that surprised me.
I also recall a Millstein master class where the pupil was playing a nearly black old whodunnit that M remarked was, however improbably, a first class instrument.
How many of your big dogs regularly play new fiddles without anyone suspecting it ?